With nearly 40,000 annual deaths on U.S. roads and human choice and error being a key cause of crashes, the promise of autonomous vehicles (AVs) has never been more critical. AVs do not drive drunk or distracted and they have the potential to transform how we move. 2025 has brought a flurry of exciting progress from AV companies like Waymo and Zoox, and these technological advancements present important questions, especially for public transportation.
A few long-term questions to consider are:
First, let’s look at where passenger service stands today. Waymo continues to expand, notably by tackling freeway driving—a high-stakes environment requiring faster reaction times—and by launching in new markets and partnering with Via to bring AVs into public transit in Chandler, AZ. They are also deepening their logistics footprint, partnering with Uber Eats and DoorDash in Phoenix.
Meanwhile, Zoox has entered commercial service in Las Vegas and San Francisco, marking a major milestone with its purpose-built, fully autonomous robotaxi. Also, Uber and Lyft continue to integrate AVs onto their rideshare platforms, signaling that the ridehailing industry is also preparing for the possibility of a driverless future.
For the transit enthusiasts reading this, the big question is: how will AVs impact transit service?
Shared AVs integrated within broader transit systems can help solve challenges faced by transit agencies, including providing effective first and last mile connections and filling transit gaps in areas underserved by public transit whether that’s urban or rural.
AVs in transit also have the potential to dramatically improve accessibility for older adults and people with disabilities. We have already seen promising AV transit pilots in larger cities like Arlington, TX, and more rural ones like Grand Rapids, MN. As the core technology matures, more agencies will likely begin testing AVs within their mixed-fleet services.
As I shared at the Urban Autonomy Summit last month, it is critical that AVs are integrated into existing transit systems. AV rides must be shared rides connected to the broader transit system. Without this focus, we risk a future where robotaxis compete with public transit, pulling riders away and increasing congestion on our roads. Do riders actually want to share? The answer is yes—if the experience is right. In dense areas with efficient algorithms, we consistently see transit users embracing shared rides.
So, what’s next for AVs? Despite tremendous technological strides, it remains to be seen if AVs can fully deliver on their potential for safety and efficiency. Realizing this vision requires close collaboration between industry and regulators. Together, they should prioritize educating riders and gaining public trust and ensure that deployment strategies actively reduce congestion and expand mobility for people who cannot drive or access transit.
To achieve full integration within transit systems, two things must happen:
The full societal impact of AVs remains uncertain, and we are likely years away from a reality where they can handle every weather condition or geographic scenario. However, the progress toward a safe, accessible solution that integrates with public transit is undeniable. As the industry matures, three critical areas warrant close attention: maintaining safety standards at scale, building public trust, and ensuring accessibility remains a core design priority.